It’s 32 days until the General election and let’s be honest everyone is voting about Brexit. So, I decided it would be a good idea to show how the country is polling and we’ll see who is winning the poles; leave or remain. We will be analyzing the four major parties: the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and the Brexit party. As I believe, this shows the leave and remain vote fairly; because most people who want Brexit will vote for the Brexit Party or the Tories while people who vote Labour or Lib Dems. I am not including the SNP because they are the only party for Scotland and even though I am leave if I lived in Scotland I would probably vote for them. As well as this if I did that then I would have to include the DUP to even the leave and remain parties out and then I have to add UKIP and the Green Party and then it just get’s messy.
So, let’s start with the Tories, the Tories are polling at 38%, which is 11% higher than Labour. This also means they are looking at 100 seat majority. This is stark increase from May under Theresa May’s government where they were scoring 11 points less. All this combined, Boris is looking at a complete majority government. All in all, this is shaping up to be a Tory landslide. With Boris resurrecting the Tory party after May’s destruction of the party.
Now onto the other leave party, the Brexit Party, the Brexit party is polling at 10%. Showing that the Brexit Party will no get the landslide they did in the European Parliament elections. Remember this is the popular vote which we are talking about so unlike the Conservatives there is no evidence about Farage getting any seats. Nevertheless, I predict they will get about 10 to 20 seats. Although, I would suggest that the Brexit Party may split the vote in swing areas. However, as it stands I would say the Brexit Party doesn’t pull the strings on Boris and the General election as much as I would of expected. By the looks of it, the Brexit party vote is not concentered in certain regions instead, it’s spread all of the UK. This means that, they’ll have a lot less representatives in parliament than if the 10% was concentrated.
Now onto the remain parties; so to start with let’s talk about Labour. So, Labour is polling at 26%. They have dropped so much because of their Brexit plan. As well as this, Labour is notorious for being for the North of England, however the North voted leave; this puts Labour in a difficult situation. On one hand, the party has headed further left than ever after Tony Blair. However, their core voter base is leave, so Corbyn answer was to appease both their left wing socialist voter base and their center left voter base, who voted leave. The plan was to do a second referendum. This made both the socialist’s and the leave voters frustrated. Leaving the leave voters turning to the Brexit Party or Tories, with the remainers ever turning to the Lib Dems or staying with Labour. Personally I believe that, the only people who’ll vote Labour is the left wing socialist’s who agree with Corbyn’s manifesto. As well as them, the families who have voted Labour for generations will also probably still vote Labour out of loyalty.
Now on to the last party, the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems are polling at 16%. They haven’t had this much of the vote share since 2010 when they had the coalition with the Conservatives. Swinson stated that ‘The Lib Dems could win hundreds of seats,’ which is extremely unlikely seeing that they only have a polling 16% vote share and that isn’t all concentrated. I would predict they’ll get about 15 to 30 seats at a push in the house of commons with them getting 12 seats in 2017 when Labour was seen as the remain party.
After all of that, to the conclusion of this article. With the Brexit Party and Tories combined they poll at 48% of the vote share. While, the remain parties are polling at 42%. This shows that there is still the want for Brexit from the country.
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Written and published by,
Charles Greenhalgh
CG News 